The Virgin Islands Partywill make a second critical decision with regard to the 2015/16 general election very shortly. That decision will be the selection of candidates to fight the election in the coming months. The first decision was anointing Julian Fraser as leader a few months ago.
Many supposedly in the know have marked their calendars sometime in July 2015 for a general election. This commentator is not that certain. He still puts his money on 2016. Or maybe his ducks are giving him the wrong signals in their paddling routine.
One exceptionally savvy political player stated over drinks at Pusser’s in Road Town that the key ducks to watch on the political pond are the completion of a major aspect of the pier project very shortly; the Queen Elizabeth II Park project; a $16 million open cheque; breaking ground on a clinic in Virgin Gorda; and the completed hospital.
In any event, Jack and Jill Delegate had better think very carefully before deciding who to select to fight the election on behalf of the VIP. There is a lot of unhealthy hubris in the VIP presently. Overconfidence is always a mistake.
This commentator has already heard one name mentioned that should fill any delegate with any common sense with total apprehension. Putting the wrong team together, especially at the at-large level, will send the party into four more years of drought: the wastelands. This writer does not believe that Jane Voter will put anyone in office without the right substance and good credentials.
The National Democratic Party possesses a very competent and savvy at-large team. Its district candidates are also very seasoned and competent players, with new, very talented, additions. At the at-large level especially, the NDP will have to be matched by the VIP for the VIP to have any hope of election success.
In the districts
At the district level, the race will be extremely competitive. The VIP may have a slight advantage in the districts. However, the at-large vote outcome is the most unpredictable factor in the upcoming race. The at-large vote will almost definitely determine the general election outcome, and which party will preside over a gross domestic product that will amount to between $4 and $5 billion dollars, with public revenues in excess of $1.3 billion, in the next political cycle.
The decision to place Mr. Fraser in the seat of leadership of the VIP was the right decision, despite reservations from certain quarters. Mr. Fraser has matured as a politician, and he is the most intelligent and seasoned politician in the VIP. Mr. Fraser is aging well, and the talk on the proverbial street corner is that he is looking very much the statesman.
This writer firmly believes that Mr. Fraser will make an excellent premier in the current social and economic environment if given the chance. He is a strong, intelligent, and tough man with a clear vision of where he wants to take the territory. That is what is needed in today’s VI to tackle the many complex issues with regard to the society and economy. But that is just the opinion of this writer, who is not endorsing any politician in this commentary.
This writer also has a lot of respect and admiration for the present premier, who is a thoughtful, likeable, and shrewd man. Dr. Orlando Smith is a tall and charismatic national figure. He possesses panache, chutzpah and pedigree. He is an excellent ambassador for these pristine islands. Both he and Mr. Fraser are lions in the political jungle.
Unpredictable
Now, the election to be held shortly is extremely unpredictable. There are two reasons for this, and both are demographic. One is the shifting demographic that has created a new and young generation of voters with peculiar features. Many of these are first-time voters. They are the children of migrants, and they’re very concerned about their futures in an economy where job growth is very slow owing to global deflationary pressures.
The second is migrants who have been granted status over the past 10 to 20 years, and who can now vote. There are enough of these to swing most districts one way or another and decide the at-large outcome.
Now the preceding assertions are all anecdotal. One can only make general allusions on VI demographics — guesswork, so to speak! This is owing to the dearth in statistical figures. The actual numbers of the two groups — voters aged between 21 and 40, and migrants given voting status — is unknown. That makes for an election that will turn out to be a game of poker, with a touch of Russian roulette. There are too many jokers in the pack to make any type of prediction, one way or another.
There is more on demographics. Women, it appears, will play a critical role in the upcoming war for power. Any party that ignores the gender factor will sink like the Titanic. This writer’s frequent encounters with the opposite sex on political matters show a new and very healthy determination that their voices will be heard loudly and clearly in the upcoming elections. Women expect to be placed in key positions in the next government, and rightly so.
VIP at large
Now a number of names have been mentioned as potential VIP at-large election candidates. Three at-large possibilities who have been either Cabinet members or government backbenchers and seasoned politicians are Dancia Penn QC, Irene Penn O’Neal, and Keith Flax. It is unclear, however, whether Ms. Penn will be on the VIP ticket. Her selection as an at-large candidate would clearly be a boon to the VIP considering her lofty credentials. Time will tell. Time always does.
However, brand-new names that get this writer excited include Charmaine Rosan-Bunbury, Roxie Romney, Stephanie Faulkner-Williams, Neville Smith, and Elton Sprauve.
Vincent O’Neal is another name that is worth considering. Mr. O’Neal is a savvy and intelligent player who has aged well. He was once a firebrand type known for his tough and no-nonsense management of the territory’s Immigration Department. A new and serene maturity is good for his political future. There are many others who could have been mentioned. But this writer has been warned to keep his stories short.
Okay. This writer considers Mses. Bunbury and Romney exceptionally savvy and intelligent types who are great assets to the VIP. They may be green to party politics and political skulduggery, but they both possess serious credentials in business, society and otherwise, and will be assets to VI governance as they mature politically. They will also help the VIP garner the female vote, which is critical to election success.
This writer has never met Elton Sprauve. But the man is well spoken of as a charismatic leader, as is Neville Smith. Zoe McMillan appears to have been slotted to fight at district level. Ms. McMillan, like Shaina Smith, is another exceptionally gifted VI female with national leadership credentials.
So the VIP certainly has a party membership to match the NDP’s. Whether King Delegate makes the right choice in picking the best and most astute players for the upcoming match remains to be seen.
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