Climate scientists predict that stronger storms over the next few decades will cost the territory tens of millions in tourism losses and hurricane damages. Pictured above is Cane Garden Bay, where most beach bars were destroyed. (Photo: FREEMAN ROGERS)

Environmental scientists are cautioning that islands across the Caribbean could face much stronger storms and more severe flooding in the coming years — making record-breaking Hurricane Irma merely the tip of the iceberg.

The stark warning comes from The Caribbean Marine Climate Change Report Card, a first-of-its-kind assessment commissioned by the Commonwealth Marine Economies Programme.

Thirty-four authors and reviewers — many of them from the region — contributed to the report’s key-topic and theme papers, which detail the specific impacts global warming could have on the VI and other Caribbean islands.

Though the threat of climate change looms large across the world, those who live and work in this region are particularly vulnerable, the study points out.

“In low-lying areas, more intense storms, floods, droughts, rising sea levels, higher temperatures, and ocean acidification are already posing severe threats to people and the marine and coastal ecosystems that support our lifestyles and livelihoods,” the report states.

Stronger storms

Since the 1990s, the number and strength of storms in the North Atlantic have both increased. The marine report says that sea level in the region has also risen by about 20 centimetres over the past century.

The report projects that while the overall number of Atlantic storms might actually decrease in the future, the amount of Category Four and Five storms (like Irma and Maria) could increase by 80 percent over the next 100 years.

Higher winds and rainfall are thought to go hand-in-hand with these powerful storms, while sea level is predicted to rise by another 26-82 centimetres globally, with some estimates exceeding more than a metre.

In the northern Caribbean, experts believe that sea level rise could be 25 percent higher than the global average, meaning a possible 125 centimetres.

These changes to the marine environment could have devastating effects on biodiversity, infrastructure and settlements, according to the reviewers’ research.

“Most people [in the Caribbean] are highly exposed to risks from natural hazards, such as hurricanes, which have severe immediate impacts and take a long time to recover from, especially when storms strike quickly again,” the paper states.

Money talks

Experts cited in several studies stress that there is a steep monetary cost to ignoring climate change.

The 2017 report includes data compiled by four researchers at the Tufts University Global Development and Environment Institute and the Stockholm Environment Institute, which estimates how much money each Caribbean island stands to lose if it doesn’t adapt to climate change.

The estimates were made in 2008, but the report’s authors say that given the large number of hurricanes, storms and floods since that time, the dollar amounts are probably much higher.

According to the climate change report, the 2004 gross domestic product for the VI was $970 million. If nothing is done to mitigate the influence of climate change by the year 2025, the report states, it could cost the territory 4.5 percent of that figure — or $43.6 million.

By 2050, that number grows to $87.3 million. And by 2075, it’s $130.9 million.

As for the USVI, whose 2004 GDP was $3.1 billion, the cost of inaction could be some $207.7 million by 2025, according to the report. Twenty-five years later, it’s an estimated $440.2 million, and by 2050 it will have grown to $700.6 million.

While the researchers stipulate that the projections are “by no means a comprehensive picture of all climate damages,” the estimates are based on tourism losses, hurricane damages and infrastructure damages due to sea-level rise.

The study adds that “average annual hurricane damages in the recent past” were used to calculate the estimates, meaning the numbers are likely skewed after the high level of destruction during this year’s hurricane season.

Initial government estimates suggest Hurricane Irma caused $3.6 billion-worth of damage to the VI.

Warming seas

Experts predict that by the 2080s, average sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean could increase by two to three degrees Celsius.

Those few degrees of difference may seem insignificant, but the warmer water could have a serious impact on both marine biodiversity and weather patterns.

Coral and many Caribbean fish species are highly sensitive, the report details, and can only survive within a small temperature range. After a temperature increase, there can be disease outbreaks and coral bleaching.

In fact, a majority of reefs in the Caribbean will experience bleaching annually or bi-annually in the next 30 to 50 years, according to several studies referenced in the report.

And the entire Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System, which borders the coast of several countries including Mexico, Belize and Guatemala, is in bad shape.

“If extreme sea surface temperatures were to continue, some projections indicate that the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System could collapse by mid-century,” the report states.

A spike in sea temperatures also increases the intensity of hurricanes, the rising of sea level, and the risk of wind and flood damage.

Early season rainfall in the next few decades could be affected by higher sea surface temperatures as well, leading to two extremes: droughts and severe flooding.

Reefs and marine life

In Anegada, lobster remains a huge draw for tourists, and many residents’ livelihoods depend on its abundance. Even after Irma, Anegada hosted the annual Lobster Festival on Nov. 25 and 26.

But according to the climate change report, the long-term survival of the spiny lobster is under threat. The crustaceans’ habitats and refuge sites have been marred by intense storms, pollution and overfishing.

As the sea continues to get warmer, less oxygenated and more acidic, corals and molluscs such as conch (another staple in Anegada and the territory) will not fare well, the report predicts. However, lobsters, shrimps and crabs could adjust slightly better because of their lighter exoskeletons, the scientists add.

Meanwhile, climate change has led to an abundance of less profitable marine life, particularly a plant that Caribbean residents know well: sargassum.

This seaweed floats in large masses across the Caribbean Sea, and often ends up being washed into inlets and up onto beaches.

Sargassum, in the right proportions, can provide a home for fish, sea turtles, crabs and other organisms. But since 2011, islands across the region have seen huge influxes of the seaweed, as it piles up in harbours and has caused resorts and hotels to temporarily close their beaches.

Dr. Shannon Gore, the managing director of the Association of Reef Keepers, said after Irma she’s also seen an invasion of “red algal bloom,” which crops up after extreme wave events. The algae grows on the sea floor and can smother neighbouring coral.

“It pretty but it’s also pretty scary to see,” she said. “People are saying the seas are blue, the hillsides look green, but look a little closer and things are not so good.”

VI moving forward

A week before Hurricane Irma hit, Dr. Gore stressed that the August floods would not be a one-time event.

She also said the information brought forward in the marine report was alarming, but all part of a bigger trend she’s witnessed and studied for years.

“Because of climate change, the number of those storms will go up,” Dr. Gore said. “Now, maybe we’ll get a storm like that every 50 years, or every 25 years. It won’t be as unordinary. I hate to say it, but it’s going to take more storms for people to say, ‘Oh, this is really happening.’”

Two months after Irma, she said she feels the pressure to be an even stronger advocate for protecting natural resources and adapting to global warming.

“It’s something people are really going to have to start listening to,” she said.

Fighting back

A few steps have been made recently to combat climate change in the territory, including the formation of a board to oversee the Climate Change Trust Fund.

The fund was established in 2015, primarily to raise and give grants to local projects that address the impact of global warming.

Dr. Gore, a member of the board, said the group is still in its early stages, but that there has been more of an urgency to get an operations manual approved after seeing the destruction of Irma.

Dr. Gore is also working with the non-profit organisation One Love BVI to bring commercial divers to the territory and clean debris from Cane Garden Bay.

Dr. Gore said that in order for the most change to happen locally, more education is needed.

“There are people who flat-out don’t believe in [global warming],” she said. “For them it’s just like white noise. They need to understand that it’s affecting everyone. I think education across the territory could turn this white noise into, ‘Oh my God, we have to do something.’”

Cause and effect

Problems do arise, however, when attempting to pinpoint the root cause of one particular hurricane or major storm, according to climate scientists.

In other words, hurricanes like Irma and Maria weren’t necessarily directly caused by climate change, but rising seas and warmer temperatures could have strengthened those storms by creating higher storm surges, and so on.

The NASA Earth Observatory wrote in an article that global warming could make future hurricanes more intense.

“Climate change may not be responsible for the recent skyrocketing cost of natural disasters, but it is very likely that it will impact future catastrophes,” the article states.

Dr. Gore agreed that one storm might not trigger warning bells, but this hurricane season as a whole — which brought multiple category Four and Five storms — could be a sign of more to come.

“Climate change doesn’t happen overnight,” she said. “There’s a process of it happening, and it’s a process that will continue.”