The United Kingdom must skilfully negotiate its exit from Europe or risk being torn apart. With the Brexit referendum, Brussels has become a massive and ominous iceberg that the seafaring vessel, The HMS Great Britain, would be wise not to crash into.
British Prime Minister Theresa May has offered specific measures of policy and governance set within the context of the forthcoming British general election of June 8, and the Brexit negotiations afterwards.
Ms. May has further offered a governing focus for the before, during and after of the UK general election and subsequent Brexit matters.
She has said that the UK government will invest heavily in the reform of technical education; provide a free breakfast for all primary school pupils; start a prosperity fund to reduce inequality in the UK; protect critical national infrastructure from foreign ownership; support primary schools with the establishment of nurseries in primary facilities; establish sovereign wealth funds to pay for new infrastructure; and build 1.5 million homes by the end of 2022.
The preceding will be attractive to voters, especially working and lower middle class Britons.
Europe
With regard to Europe, the British leader has stated that she will review human rights laws after the UK leaves the European Union. However, Ms. May has also said that she is committed to the European Convention on Human Rights for the time being.
Finally, the prime minister is seeking the best possible deal for the UK with the Brexit negotiations. However, she is willing to walk away with no agreement.
In the Guardian of May 4, Stephan Richter described Berlin’s view that Ms. May’s Brexit strategy is a monumental miscalculation that departs from reality-based British pragmatism. The paradox: The British are one of the most pragmatic of peoples. Consequently, many in Europe scratch their heads with dismay at the whole Brexit matter and the complete illogicality of Brexit.
Obligations
EU officials have asserted that the UK will not be able to retain the best bits of the EU without accepting its various obligations.
One official described the UK leader as “living in another galaxy” in terms of her views on Brexit, especially when compared with the views of most of Europe’s leaders. According to that official, she has lost touch with European realities, and she is ignoring the fundamentals of international negotiations.
Mr. Richter writes that the British Conservative Party’s “customary divide-and-rule strategy towards Europe has not worked.” The writer describes an own goal. Britain needed the support of Poland, the one European nation that appeared to side with the UK. However, the xenophobic attacks against Polish workers that helped win the Brexit vote ensured that Poland stayed firmly in the EU camp.
The EU 27 remains united against Britain in the Brexit matter. The Germans believe that Europe’s best interests are served by Downing Street abandoning Brexit. That will not happen.
Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, thinks the British negotiating position is “totally unrealistic.” Ms. Merkel has stated that the deal Ms. May wants is impossible. The chancellor stands 100 percent behind the EU 27’s united strategy on Brexit: that it is a bad idea. Ironically, Ms. Merkel believes that Brexit will create a weaker EU: The only way for the EU to remain strong is with the UK inside of Europe.
‘A venting’
So how do the Europeans view the Brexit vote? Europeans see Brexit as a venting: British working class voters were too cowed to see the Tories for what they were. These voters were directed by a section of the British elite to vent their anger against Brussels for their woes. The working men and women of Britain were in effect used by the Conservatives for political purposes.
Dismally, Ms. May is increasingly viewed as the Donald Trump of Europe. This description her is based on her assertion that the EU position on Brexit will lead to foreign imposed uncertainty and instability. The EU is bad for Britain, according to Brexiteers, because it will bring grave risk to the British economy. Brexit is a nationalist idea. It is a belief in closed borders. It has seen an upsurge in racism and xenophobia in Britain since the referendum.
There is more. The 27 EU states may view Brexit with nervousness and decide unity and cohesion is the best way to go: the beginnings of a federal Europe. This is the meaning of irony.
UK split coming?
Then, on the other hand, all signs are pointing to the disintegration of the UK as a result of Brexit.
Scotland will shortly have a second independence referendum, and Brexit may push the Scots to leave the Union. There is great nervousness and anger in Northern Ireland and Wales over Brexit. The Scots, Welsh and Irish view Brexit increasingly as an English proposition that is not in their best interest.
What is most alarming about Brexit, according to Mr. Richter, is that the UK has always possessed a ruling culture that is based on “unflinching reality-based political assessments.” Measured calculation has been the hallmark of Britain’s international policies for centuries. The UK has never allowed the outcome of national strategy to rest on a hunch.
However, Brexit is changing the Britain of pragmatism and realpolitik. Britain these days looks like she has suddenly changed from a chaste and virtuous spinster into a carefree belle, throwing away her virtues and tossing her chastity to the wind, running away with a dangerous playboy and irresponsible wanderlust.
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