British Prime Minister Theresa May has called for a surprise United Kingdom general election for June 8. This amounts to a second Brexit referendum. The prime minister and the Conservative Party she leads are expected to win convincingly.
The election will further push Britain to the Right. It will leave the UK Conservative Party in power for a generation. That is, unless something unexpected takes place. Can Ms. May conceivably lose? In life, never say never!
However, if as expected she wins with an increased Conservative majority in Parliament, it will fully legitimise the exit of Britain from Europe. It will also seal the UK’s fate as the world’s largest offshore financial services jurisdiction. Brexit Two will entrench the rule of the one percent.
A general election victory will validate Ms. May, who inherited her office after the resignation of David Cameron. The PM will be fully legitimised.
Mr. Cameron resigned after his call for a Brexit referendum resulted in a vote that went south. Britain voted yes to leaving Europe. This is a vote that means that Britain will leave the European Union in months.
Brexit may have set up the Conservative Party to rule ad infinitum. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will have to recalibrate their intentions as part of the UK after the June 8 vote. These regions will have to reassess their perceived interests as countries of the union in the light of this unexpected move by Ms. May.
A Conservative general election victory will push Britain to the right in terms of the political culture. The election call was a masterstroke by Ms. May. However, it carries substantial risk.
Political aggression?
UK opposition members believe that Ms. May’s call for a general election in June is a naked act of political aggression. It is Machiavellian brinkmanship. It shows the PM as ruthless. The timing is perfect. She appears to have caught her foes with their pants down. Ms. May pulled in the drawbridge against her opponents, just as the political terrain on the outside of the castle became deadly and treacherous.
The opposition Labour Party is in a historic mess. It is led by a socialist who hearkens back to when a significant section of the British population worked in coal mines, manufacturing, and ship building, and existed in a working class culture: the Classic Shop Floor Society.
Those were the days of Aneurin Bevan, Hugh Gaitskell, Michael Foot and Anthony Benn.
Britons are conservative and deferential by nature. Britain is a country of shopkeepers and salesmen. The British are also insular, despite the country’s imperial and mercantilist traditions. The country evolved from the time of the Norman Invasion, without the trauma of revolution and civil war, apart from the short Cromwell era, when the monarchy was overthrown for a very short period.
Centre right
Britain today is a centre right country. It is a services-oriented, financially driven economy. Britain’s middle and upper classes enjoy very high standards of living. The country enjoys the highest level of home ownership since 1945. Britain’s income per capita has averaged $36,000 per annum since 2010. However, Britain is becoming increasingly unequal.
Presently, the Conservative Party is governing with a slender majority. By calling this election, Ms. May will strengthen the Conservatives, giving the party a larger governing majority in Parliament. Her confidence is high. She has refused a televised debate. What use is a televised debate when she is so far ahead in the polls: over 20 points? She can only come out of that a loser.
Still, there are caveats. Voters may be having second thoughts about Brexit and the wisdom of leaving the world’s largest integrated marketplace. A day is a long time in politics. Six weeks are an eternity in an election campaign.
‘Socialist alternative’
Opposition Leader Jeremy Corbyn of the Labour Party presents Britain with a socialist alternative that appears attractive to a significant cross section of the voting public. His message: Austerity and conservatism are not working for the majority. Mr. Corbyn will assert that Britain requires economic stimulus and increased spending on education and social services in order to create a more equal society. No one knows how this message will be received by June 8. Elections can be tricky and unpredictable.
Mr. Corbyn will stress that a Theresa May Conservative Party government landslide will reinforce the economics of austerity that has greatly divided Britain. He will press the narrative that there are two Britains in existence; that Britain is increasingly a them-and-us society.
There is the Britain of the over-60s. These are voters who are more conservative than the under-40s. The under-40s have suffered from the austerity of the post-2007 Great Recession. Older voters today tend to be right wing, affluent, and therefore Conservative voters.
Younger voters, the under-30s, have suffered most from austerity. The young have been locked out of Britain’s housing market. They have to borrow to go to university, when once upon a time university education in Britain was free for Britons. The young are less likely to vote. The young suffer most from a new insecure and temporary work environment. This volatile way of life for Britain’s young is the result of them being essentially locked out of the political and economic process.
This political alienation is further the result of the unstable and nomadic lifestyle that many young persons in Britain have had to adopt after the 2007 recession. It is a consequence of their not enjoying the generous housing and social benefits their grandparents once enjoyed as citizens and subjects of Great Britain.
In the VI
For the Virgin Islands, Brexit Two is a good thing. The eventual departure of Britain from Europe should enhance the offshore trading and financial credentials of Britain’s overseas territories. There will be a new commercial opportunism and financial mercantilism that favour offshore financial centers. There will be better collaboration between the City of London and Britain’s offshore financial centres. OFCs will become key satellites of the City in a UK that seeks business opportunities worldwide.
Add to the preceding a new United States president who is opaque and business minded, and focused on North Korea, Syria, and in taming the Russian Bear. Unlike Barack Obama, Donald Trump, a swashbuckling billionaire and hotel mogul, has zero interest in harassing OFCs. Mr. Trump has even refused to declare his taxes. In a dangerous and volatile world, the grass has seldom been greener for OFCs.
Connect with Mr. Igwe on Facebook and Twitter.
{fcomment}