There are assertions that this series of commentaries on “the road to war” is of no relevance to the Virgin Islands.
This writer begs to differ. These commentaries speak to context. The VI sits in a much wider world governed today by a single United States hegemon with a rising Asian hegemon at its heels. There is a threat of war in Asia that could disrupt life in this island paradise in ways unimaginable presently.
What happens outside the borders of the VI and Caribbean affect the VI directly. These articles are a call to appreciate context, highlight the wider global macroeconomic influences on the VI, and encourage residents to adjust appropriately.
One example of how outside events can suddenly affect life in these islands is the recent Israeli attack on Iran and the US bombing of Iran that followed over the weekend. The outcome of this new war is unknown at this time. There are, however, assumptions.
China threat
Any war in the Middle East, for instance, could affect oil prices, leading to higher inflation.
Meanwhile, if the US gets bogged down in the Middle East, the distraction may offer China an opportunity to march into Taiwan as China’s key adversary, the US, moves its focus from Asia.
What is presently a major bushfire could spread into a much wider war if Russia and China get involved.
War in Asia between China and the US could be exceedingly dangerous. It would disrupt major supply chains, creating shortages in everything from car parts and essential products to the machines and tools that drive modern existence. War in Asia could create waves that reach every corner of the globe.
‘More dangerous’
One thing is clear: Since the election of US President Donald Trump in November 2024, the world is a far more dangerous place. Mr. Trump came in as anti-war. However, world events can change the trajectory of any president.
The record of US intervention in the Middle East has been one of failure in spite the trillions of dollars spent on wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. Sending troops into Iran could be an even greater catastrophe.
