It has been said that when the United States sneezes, the whole world catches a cold.

We fear much worse than a proverbial cold for the Virgin Islands and the rest of the Caribbean after Donald Trump was elected back to the US presidency this month under a platform of “America First.”

Climate change is an obvious example. As the world warms, the VI is right now suffering an ecological crisis as it is hit by the largest global coral bleaching event in history. And severe weather events — such as hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 — are becoming more intense and more frequent.

To mitigate such catastrophic effects, the world urgently needs to cut carbon emissions.

But Mr. Trump has already indicated that he intends to reverse or eliminate clean-energy rules. And given his previous statements, the US probably won’t be participating in international agreements to combat climate change and certainly won’t be providing leadership on the issue.

That means small island states like the VI will have to work even harder to be heard and call out polluters’ inaction. They will also have to redouble efforts to prepare for the worst at home.

Then there’s Mr. Trump’s well-documented posture on immigration. His plan to carry out mass deportations could be devastating for the Caribbean.

Mr. Trump has long been critical of the asylum process and, in 2020, issued regulations to limit even legitimate claims. Haitian immigrants are particularly vulnerable given the state of their home country’s crisis-stricken economy and government. And if the US turns Haitians away, the Caribbean, including the VI, could see a growing influx.

Meanwhile, Mr. Trump’s call to place tariffs of at least 10 percent on imports seems likely to make already-costly VI goods even more expensive. After all, many items sold here are manufactured overseas, imported into the US, and then re-exported to this territory.

That could leave those goods subject to US tariffs on top of additional taxes from His Majesty’s Customs.

Also troubling is Mr. Trump’s chaotic leadership style and his penchant for cosying up to autocrats. His approach is unlikely to be the balm needed to de-escalate growing tensions in the Middle East, Ukraine and Asia. At worst, the world could find itself hurtling toward global war.

And even in the best-case scenario, a Trump administration is likely to cut back assistance to Caribbean countries, further opening the door to China, which has been wielding an increasingly outsize influence in the region.

The news may not be all bad. There are potential upsides to the VI economy from a second Trump term. If his mooted tax cuts work as planned and the US economy booms, consumers will have more disposable income to spend on things like VI vacations. And many VI financial services practitioners generally believe that US Republican-led administrations are better for international financial centres.

But, ultimately, we fear that Mr. Trump’s second term will bring more of what he brought in his first: insular-leaning policies that may benefit a few Americans but that leave little thought to global cooperation.

Given the US’s heft on the world stage and its historical influence in the Caribbean, VI leaders would be wise to work closely with other regional leaders and the United Kingdom to examine how changing US policies will affect residents. Then they should prepare to react accordingly.

Change will likely come quickly after Mr. Trump is inaugurated on Jan. 20, and it could be disruptive indeed.