The imminent entrance of a third party into the Virgin Islands political horse race will affect the outcome of general elections, which this commentator believes will come in early 2016. How a third party will do so remains unclear.
This commentator was gobsmacked on Friday afternoon. Why? Well, he bumped into a major pillar of the third-party political culture in the VI. This wannabe analyst smirked dryly at his friend, stating, “When will you guys face the reality that you are going to have to join forces with one of the Big Two to get anywhere?”
His friend stated, “Igwe, you are right. It looks like we are going to have to join forces with party X in order to see our agenda realised.”
Of course, yours truly was delightfully surprised. And as he continues his written rendition to objective and unbiased politics and a focus on the issues and nothing but the issues, he shook his friend’s hand with warmth and appreciation. Truth and reality had at last prevailed. His buddy had at last seen the light.
Now, someone stated once that the VI is a university. By that, the person was alluding to the territory as a microcosm of the wider world. The territory, for this writer, is certainly a political and economic laboratory of sorts. One can draw many analogies in the VI that are a clear feature of the world outside. The micro is a tiny portrait of the macro.
This territory is complex, yet simple. It is essentially a colony with a high degree of autonomy. The native population evolved from an agrarian yesteryear, but the economy is also services-oriented and driven by digital technology. History and modernity coexist. There is massive wealth inequality that is causing slow economic growth. One percent of the population owns the economy and wealth. The trickledown economy is not working, though the political class will deny that fact. Certain aspects of the old culture remain, such as the religious nature of the people and the resilience of skills such as fishing and manual farming.
There are strong blood links between families through the length and breadth of the islands. The VI and its cousin next door, the United States VI, are multicultural and multiethnic, with a native population vastly outnumbered by migrants.
Possible candidate
Okay, the recent announcement by a popular television personality, Shaina Smith, that she was not joining the National Democratic Party as was being rumoured threw, stating a cliché, “a monkey in the wrench.”
For this commentator, it will make for a very interesting election season if this exceptionally attractive personality leads a third political party.
Ms. Smith is a symbol of a powerful, savvy, and intelligent VI femininity, just as is Zoe McMillan. These two youthful female politicians are the legacy of strong political role models, such as Eileene Parsons, Dancia Penn, Irene Penn-O’Neal, Delores Christopher, and Alvera Maduro-Caines.
In any event, this commentator is certain that Ms. Smith would have been better off joining one of the big two parties for the 2016 political fistfight, just as he suggested to his political friend in Road Town. Notice how all the female legislators are with the two main parties. That is not chance. That is a fact of two-party politics. To succeed, one will have to join a political organisation.
It will take a messianic-like figure of Biblical proportion to take a third party to power in the VI. Ms. Smith is not messianic.
Two-party system
This commentator does not see any third force achieving power under the present two-party regimen. History and demography are against any third party becoming dominant. The territory may have to wait another five years to enjoy the virtues of Ms. Smith’s undoubted qualities, gifts and talents, should she repeat her 2011 election plan.
The next election will be won by whichever party gets its base to the polls in greater numbers, and gets its supporters fired up.
The current high level of passion points to a clear dichotomy in the electorate between supporters of the Virgin Islands Party and the NDP. When there is high passion and intensity, the pool of undecided voters shrinks. That is not good for a third party.
In any event, this commentator believes that Ms. Smith will ultimately be swooped up by one of the two major political parties, now or in the future. He further predicts that she will enjoy an illustrious political career if she does join one of the big two. She certainly possesses national leadership potential.
Third party
The impact of third parties or independent candidates in VI elections is twofold: One, they take away votes from candidates of the two major parties; two, the third party is a place where protest votes reside. Voters unhappy with the two main parties find refuge in a third party.
How would this third-party dynamic affect the next election? To assess that matter, a look back at the 2011 election is appropriate. In 2011 there was evidence that independent candidates affected the trajectory in certain districts to the disadvantage of the present VIP. Whether the third party and the independent candidates affected the at-large vote remains unclear. Arguably, party brand affects the at-large vote greater than it does the district vote.
What does that show? Well, there may be an in-built disadvantage to incumbents, from a third party or independent candidates. Why? Simply because voters have short memories. People remember only the latest wrongs. The wrongs done five years ago are ancient history in politics.
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