On May 7, King Ralph O’Neal of the Virgin Islands reportedly decided to abdicate and hand over power to a younger generation of politicians. Okay: Long live the new king or queen. This was a show of true courage and statesmanship by the veteran politician.
In any event, the Elder King can now enjoy that 200-day world cruise. He should spend the rest of his days walking his vast Virgin Gorda estates. At this stage in his life, the skulduggery of politics is the last thing he needs.
His decision will leave intact his legacy as the longest serving VI leader. It will also crystallise his place in history as first premier, though Hamilton Lavity Stoutt remains the first leader of the modern VI.
The King’s decision paves the way for the next generation of VI leaders in the 40-60 age bracket. Politics is frequently a game for older heads. His abdication offers a select number in this generation the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to one day become leader of the territory, or at the least an elected legislator.
No doubt the present generation of political leaders will find King Ralph’s advice invaluable.
‘Swing dynamic’
Meanwhile, his absence from the political playing field will no doubt have an important effect on VI politics leading up to the next election. This commentary examines how the swing dynamic affects third party chances of election success.
In a swing dynamic, the swing is usually from one major party to the other. That is, between two power polarities on the political map. In order for a third party to have any chance at an election, it first has to create its own bedrock of supporters. Then it must hope for a split in the swing vote. A third party has to receive a significant percentage of the swing vote.
That means a third party has to arouse the passions of the undecided voter. It is usually nearly impossible for a third party to convince the core supporters of an established political party to move their support. Core supporters form the bedrock of a political party. It is impossible to gauge the core of the two main political parties. It may be speculated that the opposition’s core is larger and stronger because it has been in power longer than the incumbents. A bout of opposition can also strengthen a party’s core due to a hunger for the power once enjoyed.
‘Floating voters’
A third party may have a chance at winning over supporters of one of the big two who are not at the party core. These are voters who choose one party because they have no other choice. These voters frequently choose the lesser of two evils and are termed “floating voters” by political pundits.
A third party offers them a way out. However, history has shown, especially in the United States, that independent voters frequently move to the other side, and not to a third party. Third parties have had very little success in the US.
One can speculate that the VI possesses a significant number of these independent or swing voters. The exact percentage is impossible to determine due to unavailable metrics. But it appears very high. There is a demographic reason for this. New voters are increasingly the product of migration and marriage between Virgin Islanders and outsiders. This is what makes the political equation in these islands extraordinarily difficult to decipher. With a majority expatriate population and their offspring, the swing vote rests mainly with this demographic.
These are the voters most likely to change their minds at the drop of a hat. Frequently these are the voters who decide the outcome of an election. Most swing voters wait until the very last minute before deciding how to vote. Reaching them is where the two main parties must put their resources and efforts for an effective election strategy.
‘Intensity and passion’
A third party has to excite. However, there is just that much intensity and passion in supply in a political race. This political writer will make the prediction that the winner of the 2015 election will be the party that gets its core supporters fired up the most. That is what happened at the US election of 2012.
The Democratic demographic got fired up at the last stages of the race and gave President Barack Obama their overwhelming support: blacks, Hispanics, minorities, women, gays and white liberals. This happened after the squeaky clean Mitt Romney made aspersions about scroungers and people who voted according to which party gave the obligatory handout. Yes. Fire in the belly is what will get core party supporters out of their beds, eager to visit the polling booth on Election Day.
From observation, the supporters of the big two in the VI appear riled, fired up, even vexed. Core party supporters are horrified by the idea of one or the other winning power come the next general election. That is real politics at play. None of the big two will take any prisoners.
‘Aggression’
There is passion and aggression, even anger, on both sides of the political divide. The assessment of this political writer is this one: The next general election in all probability will remain a two-party race. That assessment, he believes strongly, will become self-fulfilling as the intensity increases in the two main camps as 2016 approaches.
Once campaigning starts, and campaigning has probably already began, there will be just enough oxygen in the political game for two players. The core supporters of the big two are currently baking in the proverbial oven called party politics. They will come out of that oven hot, eager, hungry and battle ready.
These are the political archers. They will aim their arrows at the main foe on the opposite side of the political battlefield. Their bows are well primed. The bowstrings, taut, are pulled back to the max. The arrows have already started to be released. The simple question is: Which ones will hit their mark?
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