It is time for the Virgin Islands Party to bury the hatchet. The party appears to have finally settled into a mould ready for governance. The next general election is in about two years. That is a very long way off. The transition from former premier Ralph O’Neal to Andrew Fahie (R-D1), a leader more well liked by members of the VIP and the wider territory, certainly has not gone smoothly.
Too many years of fratricidal struggle between the two factions in the party may have finally ended. Julian Fraser (R-D3) has fought the good fight. He has earned his medal. A long vacation — the proverbial “world cruise” — is his best medicine now. It is time for his troops to go home and heal. This commentator’s informers tell him that VIP members appear satisfied with the results of their leadership election of Nov. 30.
Now, make no mistake: Mr. Fahie is now on a clear path to the premiership. The next general elections will be called up to sometime in 2019. However, a VIP victory is no done deal.
Mr. Fahie and Dr. Natalio “Sowande” Wheatley, the party’s new president, have a steep mountain to climb if they hope to achieve national power in two years. That path to power goes up a formidably high precipice and through dangerous and wild country. It will be a difficult, exhausting, and unpredictable journey to the Promised Land of Political Power. And it is an odyssey that begins with winding, treacherous and deadly terrain.
‘People-friendly’
There is both good news and bad news for the VIP. The bad news is that Mr. Fahie faces “trust issues.” These matters of trust are based on solid antecedents. His foes on the opposite side of the fence know this, and they will use it against him.
The good news is that unlike his predecessor, the new chairman is considered likeable and people friendly. That is always a good thing in politics.
Mr. Fahie simply has to cultivate the right circles and walk a circumspect path over the coming months to overcome his trust deficit. Still, that will not be as simple as it sounds. Many of his old friends will be only too willing to offer him poisonous advice. Traps will be laid. He will trip over the unexpected tree stump. He will sink his feet into deep mud. The road to power is never an easy route.
Policies and ideas
Another way Mr. Fahie will neutralise the trust deficit is to focus on policy and not personalities. The new leader will recall that at the last general election in 2015 the VIP had a long menu of policies and ideas. However, the National Democratic Party stole the narrative. The VIP allowed itself to be defined by the NDP, which clearly enjoyed the benefit of greater resources.
There was the VIP proposal for a maritime academy integrated into the primary and secondary school system; a housing plan for first-time homebuyers; a negotiating with the United States VI to harmonise the tourism infrastructure in the USVI with the tourism market here in the VI. This was to be done by removing transportation, customs, and immigration barriers between the two territories. The party also proposed expanding the Terrance B. Lettsome International Airport to cater for large jets; making the VI a digital hub for the Caribbean in the same vein as Silicon Valley in California; pursuing full university status for the H. Lavity Stoutt Community College; and much more.
Pursuing the party agenda with laser focus will place the feet of the new leader on solid rock.
Boon for NDP
The good news for the VIP is also a boon to the NDP. The present political climate favours both parties. As a result of demographic factors, the nature of politics, and the dynamics of organisations, the VI is today a solid two-party territory. This is so now more than ever before. It is not going to change. In fact, it may not change in our lifetimes. Whether this is good or bad is for the reader to decide.
Consequently, anyone attempting to form a third party is, well, simply wasting their time. All the antecedents show that any third party will hit the proverbial kerb and stray into the nearest ditch where it will be stuck for good. The era of the independent candidate is over.
The next General Election will be between the VIP and the NDP, period! The best supporters and enemies can do is choose their side and go into battle.
The reason for the preceding is that brand is everything these days. The men and women who control the political brand run the show. Brands take decades to develop. Coke and Pepsi did not become the world’s most powerful and universal brands overnight. It took decades of slick marketing and complex organisational management to build both brands into colossal global businesses. The NDP too are masters at building their brand.
Next election
Okay. The VIP has a good chance of winning the next General Election. However, never make the mistake of underestimating the propensity of men to do stupid things. If a day is a long time in politics, two years is an eternity. There is a lot of time ahead for dynamics and trends to change for better or worse, and that is despite the fact that at present things look very good for the VIP.
And remember the last general election? What did it prove? The NDP could be described as one of the savviest political organisations in the Caribbean. The NDP does not take prisoners. The powerful organisation systematically demolished the VIP at the last General Election in 2015. In fact, the job was so thorough that some VIP candidates appeared to go into “hiding” for a very long while. It was an embarrassing repudiation of the leader and his soldiers by Joe Voter.
Migration
The NDP still enjoys demographic advantages that stem from 30 years of migration from Caribbean islands into the territory to service the rapid growth in financial services and tourism. The party appeals to newcomers. The party further enjoys the support of a large section of the youth population who grew up in NDP country. These are young men and women who were children when the VIP was last in power. Their mature years were lived under NDP governance. They know nothing else but NDP.
Another matter is the state of the global environment. There are bigger “King Kongs” out there who run things in a world where globalisation is still very much the main game in town. The new VIP will have to understand the complexities and nuances of getting the best for this territory in that bigger and much more unforgiving world. The new leader will have to negotiate with seasoned officials in the United Kingdom and elsewhere who do not have the same love and loyalties he or she may have for these tiny islands.
And presently, the trust VI residents have for their politicians is at rock bottom. Consequently, the VIP, including those who came out of the Nov. 30 elections with the short end of the stick, will have to bury the hatchet. The party will have to unite around Mr. Fahie and his team. If not, eight years in the political wilderness will increase to 12. That would be a terrible thing indeed! Yes, this thing is far from a done deal!
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