A recent report commissioned by the United Kingdom Overseas Territories Association emphasised the benefits the Virgin Islands derives from the UK’s European Union membership, and one Virgin Islander training in the UK recently posted on Facebook the importance of the vote, as Brexit threatens the right to free movement across the EU, a highly-valued benefit of a UK passport. I hope that other belongers living in the UK used their right to vote (see my letter to the Beacon during the last General Election) and that all our eligible UK expatriates were able to vote in person; by mail; or, like me, through a proxy.
OECS members
The consequences for poorer Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States members could be more serious. The Dominica prime minister said his country depends on EU funding to balance its budget, adding that he hoped the UK would take up the shortfall despite the economic downturn.
Serious questions need to be asked about the process required for such a major change to the UK’s constitution and the conduct of the campaign that achieved it in a bruising fight, which I would characterise as the triumph of the resentment of the ignored over the complacency of the elite. Two related news items this week: Nigel Farage’s resignation as leader of the UK Independence Party, and a London law firm’s announcement that it is acting to ensure that triggering Brexit negotiations is preceded legally by a full debate and vote in Parliament.
Mr. Farage publicly conceded defeat before any result of the referendum was announced as exit polls indicated that Remain had won by a small majority, but he “un-conceded” after the shock of a smaller-than-expected majority for Remain in Newcastle, a large city in northeast England. He seesawed like that more than once before finally proclaiming UK Independence Day. The grassroots supporters of Leave partied wildly, but politicians on both sides appeared to have been caught out by the result, without any clear plan as to the way forward, while other EU leaders had prepared for that possible outcome.
Mr. Farage also spoke of UKIP’S “greatest potential” to attract Labour voters. Jeremy Corbyn faces calls to resign as the party’s leader by most Labour Party MPs led by former members of the shadow cabinet in protest against his lacklustre support for Remain, viewed as the main reason their traditional English and Welsh Labour supporters voted for Leave. His departure would make a clean sweep of all the Brexit’s leading players.
Law firm
When David Cameron announced that he would stand down as prime minister by October, he said he would leave his successor to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. However, Mishcon de Reya, a London law firm acting for several businesspeople and academics, said it would be unlawful for a prime minister to do so before a full debate and vote in Parliament — on which the referendum was advisory, not binding. Overriding the 1972 European Communities Act constitutionally requires an act of Parliament to give the prime minister legal authority. The law firm does not dispute the force of the referendum result, but admits that the passage through Parliament of such an act could theoretically give the majority of parliamentarians who favoured Remain the chance to block the UK’s exit from the EU.
Constitutional change
Leave obtained 52 percent of the vote, a narrow simple majority, but only 36 percent of the total electorate — hardly a resounding endorsement of such a major change in the UK’s constitution. Constitutions of most democratic countries include much greater barriers against amendment and changes cannot be enacted unless they have passed special procedures, before direct approval by the electorate in a referendum. As examples: Australia and Ireland both require that all amendments first be passed by their legislatures, while in Australia a majority of voters in a majority of states is also necessary.
An opinion poll shortly after the vote revealed that up to a million voters for Leave had changed their minds after seeing the negative impact on the UK, and several individuals openly admitted they had intended a protest vote in the expectation that Remain would win. Since the process is in uncharted territory, the new prime minister might find a way to call another General Election to confirm his mandate to govern and give the electorate a chance to re-voice its views without another bruising referendum. The small, pro-EU Liberal Democrat Party has adopted a policy that if the new prime minister calls a General Election, a new parliament of members elected on a commitment to Remain could ignore the referendum’s result.
An online petition for a second referendum started before the count by a supporter of Leave has attracted over three million signatures, although some 70,000 have been invalidated after an investigation for possible fraud by a Commons committee.
Brexit’s appeal
Leave’s call for the UK to “take back our borders” to control immigration from Eastern Europe had a strong appeal to the workers who traditionally support Labour, and older middle-class voters were attracted by promises to use £350 million per week saved by ending contributions to the EU to increase funding for the National Health Service. They also looked back to Great Britain, controller of its own affairs and finances. Remain did not seem to understand the emotional appeal of these two issues until shortly before the vote, and it countered them with economic arguments and appeals from overseas leaders for the UK to remain. Young supporters of Remain are seen as sympathetic towards free movement and the ideals of the EU.
Since the referendum, Leave’s leadership has sought to distance itself from such unrealistic promises. One prominent leader has denied that the leaders had promised to reduce immigration after the government had “taken back its borders” or that they had promised to increase spending on the NHS by £350 million per week (which ignored rebates) — but some of them had been photographed close to a Leave campaign bus with such a slogan across its sides. The Leave campaign might also be referred to a House committee for possible fraud.
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