Brexit is the most damaging event in recent United Kingdom history, equivalent to the Suez Crisis of the early 1960s in terms of its malevolent effect on UK politics, economics and society.
Boris Johnson will be UK prime minister by the end of this month, save for some event totally unforeseen as yet.
Mr. Johnson is an opportunist. Unlike Nigel Farage, who actually believes in his own folly that the UK will be stronger outside Europe, Mr. Johnson has no beliefs or principles on the Brexit matter whatsoever save that it is a one-way ticket for Mr. Johnson into the prime minister’s residence at Number 10 Downing Street.
However, Mr. Johnson will enter office and immediately face a chain of crises. In fact, he may not survive the first few weeks as prime minister if British parliamentarians have their way.
For most members of parliament, a no-deal Brexit is unacceptable. This is what Mr. Johnson advocates: crashing out of Europe.
He states he will accomplish this “feat” by suspending the UK parliament under an arcane law. This is similar to the Virgin Islands premier stating that he will suspend the House of Assembly on a matter of national importance because legislators do not share his views on the matter.
If Mr. Johnson tries this, there will be a constitutional crisis, probably leading to a general election.
‘Best case’
The best-case scenario for Mr. Johnson, which is very unlikely to transpire, is that UK parliamentarians accept a no-deal Brexit. Then many months of crisis would follow, which experts believe would lead to a deep recession with the loss of millions of jobs. The very blue-collar types who were the strongest supporters of Brexit, following their Eton and Oxbridge masters into the “pit of hell,” will be the very ones who suffer the most economically.
And in the medium term, Brexit will hit multiple walls.
The first: Brexit is simply unsustainable demographically at a time when under-40s are solidly Europhile. So a return to the EU is on the cards in a number of years.
Second, Brexit will break up the UK, leaving a core called England remaining, with dramatically reduced clout.
England will have no choice but to become a vassal of the United States to survive.
Third: There is no way out of the Irish backstop conundrum, and the Irish question.
With Brexit, the future of the UK is bleak.
Europe looks on with a detached disdain as the UK makes a fool of itself on the global stage. European leaders probably observe with a subtle gloating, as prime minister after prime minister fall on the sword called Brexit.
In the OTs
Overseas territories of Great Britain must begin to understand the constitutional ramifications of Brexit.
Do these territories want to be tied to a Little England with dramatically reduced global influence or the European Union, a marketplace of 500 million?
Brexit is a conundrum and a cul de sac. For Britain, the 2016 referendum was an exercise in folly and pride. It has backfired dramatically, with terrible consequences.
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