Virgin Islands residents are advised to protect their homes and businesses as forecasters predict more violent storms in the region over the coming months.
The Department of Disaster Management issued several warnings this week to inform the public of approaching weather systems likely to bring more heavy rainfall following the recent flooding.
DDM Director Sharleen DaBreo said in a statement on Monday that there “seems to be an increase in the frequency of tropical waves developing in our area.”
She added, “As we have seen, tropical waves can be intense enough to cause damage comparable to storms and hurricanes.”
On Aug. 9, the United States National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration released an updated 2017 hurricane season outlook.
In the northern Atlantic Ocean, a distinct hurricane season occurs from June 1 to Nov. 30, sharply peaking from late August to September.
NOAA forecasters have indicated that there is now a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season — an increase from the 45 percent chance they predicted in May.
The predictions now call for 14 to 19 named storms, of which two to five could be major hurricanes.
Earlier predictions called for 11 to 17 named storms, of which two to four could be major hurricanes. The initial prediction of five to nine hurricanes overall, however, remains unchanged.
Warmer water
Gerry Bell, the NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster, explained the factors contributing to the increase.
“The wind and air patterns in the area of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean where many storms develop are very conducive to an above-normal season,” he said. “This is in part because the chance of an El Nino forming, which tends to prevent storms from strengthening, has dropped significantly from May.”
Dr. Bell added that there is warmer water across the tropical Atlantic than previously predicted.
Meanwhile, Colorado State University’s hurricane researchers have maintained their above-average Atlantic hurricane season prediction.
They cited neutral El Nino conditions and a warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic as the main reasons for their prediction.
To date, the season has produced six named storms: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily and Franklin.
The total number of named storms in an “average” Atlantic hurricane season is 12, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
Tropical waves
Apart from named storms and hurricanes, other weather systems such as tropical waves could pose a threat to the region and continue to be monitored.
Ms. DaBreo stressed the need for everyone to remain vigilant and prepare for these weather systems. To that end, they should ensure that they have an emergency supplies kit, battery operated radio, non-perishable foods and water, she said.
It is also important to complete any remedial work which may be necessary to lessen the risk of inland and coastal flooding and wind damage, according to the DDM head.
More information on approaching weather systems can be found on DDM’s website at www.bviddm.com and on the Faebook page www.facebook.com/bvi.ddm.
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