There was great hullabaloo at the establishment of a third political party on March 29. This launch clearly showed that there has been a split in one of the contenders for that unenviable third lane in party politics.
One prominent player in a third party in the 2011-2012 election is today rubbing shoulders with the most powerful independent politician since a two-party hegemony was established many moons back. The apparent split in one of the third party affairs suggests that loyalty does not matter in VI politics. Power is all that matters these days.
This is a very old movie that has been played many times in the past, in election cycle after election cycle. This writer sees no reason why anything will be different this time around. These parties appear, contest elections, lose, and then disappear.
Cold analytics determine still that by the time votes begin to get cast sometime at the end of 2015 or early 2016, the dogfight will boil down to the big two. That is his opinion, but it is based on simple precedent and recent political history. However, he joins in the celebration of democracy and freedom, a great virtue of these Lesser Antilles.
‘Crossroads’
Okay. There comes a time when crossroads are approached. This can be real or figurative. The crossroad is the time in life when one has to make the big decision to “do or die.”
The opposition has reached such a crossroad. It has decided to put its house in order. Make no mistake about it: The decision made on April 23, wherever the planned party convention takes place, will be VI history. That meeting could very well decide the future leader of this territory.
So why is April 23 so crucial? Because based upon precedent, the race at the end of 2015 — all things being equal — will remain a two-party affair. A third party over the preceding four or five election cycles has yet to break into the two-party mould.
This writer stated in a previous commentary that for a third party to break the mould it will have to possess three distinct attributes:
• most importantly, a name brand that is as recognisable and powerful as Kellogg’s — and that is imprinted upon the voter imagination;
• a national vision that is overwhelmingly different from those of the established two parties, and that spells out in detail a social, economic and national security vision for the VI; and
• candidates with big personalities and solid characters who stand out from the norm.
In any event, the all-knowing Tom Voter will soon make the decision, whether or not this new outfit possesses these three critical features. Tom and Jane Electorate will determine whether the new boys on the block pass the electability test. Will this new organisation pass muster? Time will tell: It always does!
Hypotheses
This wannabe political strategist will offer his hypotheses on the new third party.
It is a complex political game by a master politician. The idea is to hold the balance of power at the upcoming election. Then the savvy political player of the Second District will use his political clout to project himself into the Premier’s Office, when there is no clear choice from the ballot box in 2016. In other words, he is expecting a hung House of Assembly with no one clear winner. Then one party or the other will need his one or two seats to gain power. He will grant this at a big price.
However, this lover of VI politics has been taking the complex pulse of Joe Voter lately. And his assessment is this: Voters regret splitting their vote for various outfits and one-man bands at the last General Election. So this time around, they will vote for one of the two established parties. That is his simple opinion.
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