The hard facts of Brexit are beginning to appear. It will not be a straightforward divorce. Brexit could turn nasty!
There was a meeting held at Downing Street on April 29 between Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, and British Prime Minister Theresa May. The core issue was Brexit.
Ms. May has stated that she wants a “deep and special relationship with the EU.” However, her nuances say the opposite. In fact, recent developments look ominous.
She told Mr. Juncker that Britain does not have to pay its outstanding liabilities upon departure. These monies could add up to $100 billion. Then the prime minister further insisted that all Brexit negotiations should be kept secret.
Mr. Juncker’s response was cold and terse. He warned that if the UK left the Single Market, Britain would have a lower status than Turkey in the eyes of the EU. He also told the British leader that the EU is a legal construct, not a golf club.
The very next day, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Europe’s most powerful politician, told the Bundestag — the German parliament — that Britain suffers illusions over Brexit. Meanwhile, a European official told the press in Warsaw, Poland, that Britain must meet its financial obligations to the EU before any exit deal could be agreed. Britain, in other words, can’t just get up and walk out.
As far as Ms. Merkel is concerned, the snap British general election of June 8 will have no impact on the European position on Brexit. In fact, one official stated that Brexit took up a “measly” 30 minutes of official time. The Union was too busy dealing with myriad matters to be occupied with Brexit. Apparently, Brexit is viewed by Europe’s top dogs as a local difficulty.
Other countries
More ominously, Portugal has stated that despite a friendship with Britain going back to a 14th Century treaty, it now thinks in terms of the EU 27 and will stay loyal to the EU. “With friends like Portugal…”
French officials have stated that after Brexit, customs clearing centres will be set up in all French ports to control British lorries and cars. Another said that the $120 trillion City of London business in euros would have to move to an EU state.
In Dublin, Southern Ireland, after the UK leaves Europe border controls with Northern Ireland will have to be instated.
But there is more. The EU president actually expects the Brexit talks to fail. It appears that Britain and Europe inhabit different universes over Brexit. For example, European leaders expect European nationals living in the UK to keep all their rights, even after Brexit. In the UK, this piece of prospective policy is clearly ambiguous.
There are technical challenges in a divorce. The UK does not believe that it will be under the jurisdiction of the European Court after she leaves. However, exiting the EU is not a unilateral affair. Brexit is complex and unwieldy. The UK will lose influence over how the process unfolds. In fact, Britain has already lost that influence, and in the future the UK will further have to follow rules agreed by European institutions that the country is no longer a part of.
New rules
European leaders have stated that Britain cannot cherry pick aspects of the rules that favour the country after Brexit.
Now, Britain has said that it will be guided by seven key principles in the Brexit negotiations: engaging in a spirit of cooperation; striking a deal for EU citizens in Britain and British citizens residing in Europe; achieving a comprehensive trade agreement with deep cooperation on security; minimising disruption; and maintaining the common travel area between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.
However, the preceding depends on the goodwill of the EU 27. There is no guarantee the EU will not play hardball.
In fact, speaking to an audience of diplomats in Florence in early May, Mr. Juncker described the UK’s decision to leave Europe as a “tragedy.” He went on to offer a further broadside, stating, “Slowly but surely English is losing importance in Europe.” Then the CEO of Goldman Sachs — the world’s most powerful investment bank —warned that London’s financial centre will stall due to the turmoil of the Brexit process.
Alex Salmond, a powerful Scottish politician, has warned that with regard to Brexit there is disunity across the UK. He has gone as far as suggesting that Brexit should be delayed. He describes Northern Ireland as deadlocked. He has stated that Wales feels alienated in the process. His own Scotland is seeking a second referendum. England, he says, is “split down the middle.”
In the VI
For British overseas territories, and these Virgin Islands, the next few months will be uncertain until a final Brexit deal is hammered out.
Brexit is increasingly looking like a house of cards and Europe the strong fortress.
One wonders whether the axiom is appropriate for Britain: “When in a hole, stop digging.”
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