There is no question that the Virgin Islands needs air contact with the outside world. There is also no question that the departure of American Airlines (in the form of American Eagle) is going to hurt and hurt badly. Two airlines claim to be prepared to take up the slack in seats, but it should be clearly noted that both of these airlines would have some difficulty in being classed even as feeder airlines in the continental United States. And an analysis of the promises shows that the relief may well be minimal.
In a recent statistical analysis of overnight tourists and how they get to Tortola (or the VI for that matter), it was found that 65 percent arrive via St. Thomas and 35 percent through Beef Island. This gives a monthly average of about 9,850 passengers. Reducing this to a daily average, one arrives at 325 passengers.
Assuming that the usual statistical rule of thumb applies (the maximum is approximately twice the average and the minimum half the average), one can predict that the maximum will be in the order of 650 per day — and the minimum possibly as low as 170 per day.
Currently, in the off season, American Eagle is flying three ATR 72 flights for 216 seats, and Cape Air claims to be flying six flights for 54 seats. That would give a total seat availability of 270 seats, which is probably well in excess of the passengers requiring transport — at least in the low season.
In the high season, American habitually has added flights, possibly doubling its total seat availability to 432, and Cape Air also indicates that it will increase flights by a factor of almost two, to 11 per day — or 99 seats. The total in the spring of 2013 (before AE’s departure) would then be 531 per day, still possibly short of the required 650. But two extra AE flights or a few Cape Air flights would balance out fairly well.
But when AE departs the scene, the picture will change radically. Seaborne will provide 24 flights per week at 38 seats per flight (using Saab 340B aircraft, which the airline will apparently purchase as surplus from American Eagle) for a weekly total of 912 seats per week, or about 130 seats per day. If this is the limit of Seaborne’s commitment to Beef Island, it is obvious that the maximum estimated requirement of 650 seats per day will not be met. Further, it seems unlikely that Cape Air will be able to make up the difference. The addition of flights using the Britten Norman Islander at nine seats isn’t going to fill the gap either.
Seaborne’s claim that it will add seats direct between San Juan and Virgin Gorda (using the 16-seat Twin Otter aircraft) strictly depends on the suitability of the currently unmodified VG airport for this size of aircraft. Has Seaborne checked, or does this just sound good?
Claims challenged
So for all the hopeful verbiage in the Beacon article, the solution to American’s departure seems to be as far away as ever. As has been said, “You can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.” And the latter group includes those who are looking for a non-existent seat to Beef Island.
I challenge some of the statements reported in the Beacon article.
• American claims to be “very committed” to the Caribbean. But the facts are that both American and AE are cutting back on service to the Caribbean generally and are making very little effort to schedule the remaining flights at convenient times, especially for the VI. Again, the statement sounds fine — but says nothing really constructive, or even perhaps truthful.
• BVI Tourist Board Chairman Russell Harrigan (the majority owner of the Beacon) compares a flight from the northeastern United States to the VI to one from Miami to St. Lucia or St. Kitts. I have several comments on this comparison:
a) It is illogical to attempt to compare apples and oranges. Passengers traveling from Miami to the Caribbean must first get to Miami (if that is not their point of origin). And that is going to add hours to the elapsed time, especially if they are connecting to a flight that originates elsewhere and is frequently delayed in arrival at Miami and must be cleaned and prepared for the next onslaught of passengers before loading.
b) The flight from Miami to St. Thomas is about three hours, and the ferry ride is about one hour — if you are lucky and the ferry company does not shaft you. So allow five hours to arrive at West End. You really cannot do much better to either St. Lucia or St. Kitts. I have travelled the routes and know all too well!
c) Both Seaborne and Cape Air make it very clear that they will provide seats in accordance with demand. Lacking demand, they will not fly half-full aircraft. This is neither surprising nor particularly new. We have been down that road before, and it is really the cause of our basic problem.
What tourists want
It is claimed that all the “average” tourist wants is to get here as quickly as possible and then to split for the nearest beach bar and “fun in the sun.” It is highly possible that same tourist will spend the next few days in Peebles Hospital with an advanced case of sunburn. And the long term effects? I have had three doses of skin cancer, which I blame on a summer of raking firewalls without a shirt in the oil fields of Alberta as a student.
In truth, the “average” visitors doubtless are looking for sun — but, one hopes, in moderation. They are also looking for good shopping — preferably for things that are not made in China but locally — for good accommodations (at a reasonable price); for good, courteous and pleasant service; and for good restaurants that serve good local food.
I challenge the BVITB to realistically evaluate the VI and see exactly how many of these wants are likely to be fulfilled on a trip to Tortola. Perhaps the general problem starts with the less than totally welcoming attitude to the cruise ship passengers who represent the potential overnight tourists of tomorrow. Or the exorbitant cost of finding something to do once here — $100 for a taxi ride to Cane Garden Bay?
I have visited Barbados, Trinidad, Antigua, St. Kitts and Nevis, Grenada, Montserrat, Anguilla, St. Lucia, Bermuda, Cayman and St. Thomas — and, of course, I live here. And quite frankly, I have found little to really recommend the VI in comparison to all of the others. Even the old comparison of the lower crime rate seems currently to be a bit doubtful. But living here may cloud the picture somewhat. Quite possibly, familiarity does breed contempt!
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