For $6.41, anyone can buy a share on the “prediction market” website Intrade, wagering that United States President Barack Obama will be reelected to a second term on Tuesday.

As of the Beacon’s print deadline yesterday, the website, which uses market forces to generate a “price” and likelihood of future events, priced Republican challenger Mitt Romney’s chances of winning at $3.62 per share.

The website offers no prediction to the answer of another question: How will the election’s outcome affect the Virgin Islands?

Several election observers contacted for this article agreed that this territory’s economy  — particularly the financial services and tourism sectors — can be heavily influenced by US legislation and government action, which in turn is partially decided by who occupies the White House.

“Regardless of policy, what’s going to impact the BVI is whether the US economy grows or contracts, for financial services or tourism,” said Ross Munro, a partner at Harneys who heads the VI office of law firm’s funds and regulatory division.


See the Nov. 1, 2012 edition for full coverage.